Supplements to the study "Clusters and Loops of the German Phillipscurve" by G. Quaas and M. Klein


Definitions of Indicators


Description of the analysed variables:

“For the nominal wage rates (wr) we use the monthly average labour costs per employee. The unemployment rate (UE) is a moving average of four quarters of the number of unemployed per working force. As indicator for the inflation we utilise the chained consumer price index (P) and accordingly the one of the import prices (Pim) and of the export prices (Pex). The values for the productivity (H) equal the labour productivity per employee. The profit rates (R) are operationalized by property income related to the income of employees.”

Operations (E-Views Commands) for the Definition of the theoretical variables on the basis of the German System of National Accounts:

Unemployment “ue” according to an idea from G. L. Perry:
series ue = @movav(aleb/ewpers*100,4)

aleb = Arbeitslosenendbestand, Data of the German "Arbeitsagentur"
ewpers = Erwerbspersonen, Data of the German "Statistisches Bundesamt" (StBA)

Change of Unemployment:
series ue_ch = (ue - ue(-4))/ue(-4)*100

Wage Rate:
series wr = lkmo
lkmo = Lohnkosten (Arbeitnehmerentgelt) je Arbeitnehmer monatlich (in EUR, Inland)

Change of the Wage Rate:
series wr_ch = (wr - wr(-4))/wr(-4)*100

Inflation (Change of Price levels):
series infl = (cpripe-cpripe(-4))/cpripe(-4)*100
cpripe = Preisentwicklung des Privaten Konsums

Special Definition of Inflation according to Perry :
series infl_p = ((cpripe - cpripe(-1))/cpripe(-1) + (cpripe(-1) - cpripe(-2))/cpripe(-2) + (cpripe(-2) - cpripe(-3))/cpripe(-3) + (cpripe(-3)-cpripe(-4))/cpripe(-4))*100

Rate of Profit, definition with a lose reference to E. Kuh:
series r = (yuv - yan/ewan*ewslb)/yan*100
yuv = Einkommen aus Unternehmertätigkeit und Vermögen
yan = Arbeitnehmerentgelte
ewan = Erwerbstätige Arbeitnehmer
ewslb = Erwerbstätige Selbständige

Change of the Profit Rate:
series r_ch = (r-r(-4))/r(-4)*100

Special Definition of the Profitrate and its Change according to Perry:
series r_p = @movav(r,4)
series r_p_ch = (r_p - r_p(-4))/r_p(-4)*100

Change of the Level of Import- and Export Prices:
series impe_ch = (impe - impe(-4))/impe(-4)*100
series expe_ch= (expe - expe(-4))/expe(-4)*100
impe = Preisentwicklung Import
expe = Preisentwicklung Export


A general remark to the definition of changes of price indices

The change of the general level of prices (price development) (PE) taken between the corresponding quarters of a year and the previous year depends on two factors: the change of the Paasche price index (PI) taken between the same compared quarters and the annual Paasche price index of the previous year. (See Quaas 2009, p.33, equ.71.) As far as price expectations hark back to experiences of the previous year, the change of the price level (defining the inflation rate) includes this information.


References



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